Sir Monkeypants and I were playing with the election numbers this morning (and just let me say what a huge relief it is that we are not facing the words “Stephen Harper, Prime Minister” this morning). The minority government leaves some interesting possibilities.
Although they are saying on the CBC that the minority Liberal government will likely do very well (receiving support from the Conservatives on fiscal issues, and support from the Bloc/NDP on social issues), the actual seat count is quite interesting. Say a vote happens in which the Liberals and NDP unite. Combined, they have 135 + 19 seats — 154 votes, exactly half of the house. Now suppose the Bloc and Conservatives vote against — they have 99 + 54 seats, 153 votes.
Now another important factor (I think) is that the Liberal party must appoint a Speaker Of The House. Traditionally, the governing party picks the Speaker from their own MPs (ironically, so that in the event of a tie, the vote will go their way). The Speaker only votes in the event of a tie. So if the Liberals give up one of their own to be Speaker, they’ll only have 153 votes as well (combined with the NDP).
You might think, okay, that’s a tie, so the Speaker votes, end of story. But it’s not really a tie, because there is one other vote in the house. One Independent guy was elected in B.C. I think this could be the first time ever an Independent could be the swing vote in the house. Imagine the power! It’s like being on Survivor and being wooed by two different alliances at once!
So who is this guy? He’s Chuck Cadman. He used to be a Reform MP for his riding, but after the merger of the Conservatives and the Alliance, the new party chose someone else for his riding, so he ran as an Independent and won. Assuming he still has conservative ideals, and isn’t bitter about the fact that he lost his party’s nomination, I think we can count on him to side with the Conservatives in most cases.
This tells me that Paul Martin should possibly consider not picking the Speaker from his own party. I wonder if that has ever happened before.
In any case, the next month or so should be pretty interesting!